Other roto leagues

I realized something about Rotohog yesterday...

While I have been all about the main prizes ($100K), the best part of RH is the ability to have a completely fair league. It will eliminate all the usual crap I deal with from fantasy baseball.

I've been in a league for nearly a decade with some friends from college. There have been a number of rule changes because fairness constantly seems to be a problem. Right now, it's a 12 team keeper league (10 keepers, no restrictions). I don't really like trading with anyone ... everyone is trying to rip everyone else off. Next year, I think I'm going to suggest that we put the league into RH so we don't have to deal with it.

RH needs to add some functionality whereby we can pay our $250/team (that league is fairly steep, I know) into the system, and get paid (according to our own leagues payout schedule) easily. 5% off the top for running the baseball and running the money, would be fair.

Will RH eliminate sportsline, espn, and the rest when this functionality gets added. Maybe one day...but not soon. There is still very much a place for live drafts and human to human trading, not to mention private message boards with the kind of commentary not fit for public consumption. But for leagues that are just one big headache after the draft...move em to the hog.

A frustrating game

Ohh, baseball is one frustrating game. Hit the ball hard 5 times and go 0-5. Dink three hits for a couple rbi's. A close call goes the wrong way which then opens the flood gates on you.

Fantasy baseball is similar. You knew the guy was going to have a good start...but you didn't start him. You knew your guy was about to slump...but you kept playing him anyway.

Don't get too upset with what you didn't do right. There's no time for that. Remember, "the triumphs in life are partly triumphs because you know that everything isn't going to be a triumph." Warren Buffett said that and it applies to just about every area of life. (even fantasy baseball)

Why we like to gamble

Back in the day, and I mean waaayyy back in the day, the hunter who could guess where the herd was going to be could feed his family or his tribe. That made him a hero. When money got involved, it made him rich. That is why we like to gamble - it's hard wired into our DNA. (I'm no scientist and I shoot from the hip, so I don't actually know if this is hard-wired or what hard wired even means. :))

I am completely involved in the stock market and the above is the reason. But if there is one thing better than trying to guess what is going to happen in society, economics, company decisions, and with the influential few that dictate the stock market, it is trying to predict what will happen in baseball.

The stock market has rules and truisms and metrics. Baseball has 90 feet to first and just as many rules, truisms and metrics. Thanks to Rotohog for creating an egaging platform for my predictions.

I will make a prediction or calculate odds on just about anything. Doing it on the game I love is just more enjoyable. After all, a Torii Hunter diving grab and Joe Mauer 5-5 gets the juices flowing even more than Vasco Data Security blowing the number out on their latest quarterlies.

RSS Feeds?

It appears you can actually go on vacation (well - a friends wedding with a few extra days in my hometown of Baltimore) and not dramatically lose position. You mean I don't actually have to make have a dozen moves everyday?? Apparently not.

One thing I would love to see - a few rss feeds. Leaderboard? Message Board? News?

What I would love to see...

Most people know that "points per" is the measure of who is truly winning rotohog.

"Points per" inning and "points per" game.

Why? Because everyone will have 162 games at each position and everyone will have 1300 innings pitched. The difference is how you get there.

So I would love to see a "points per" leaderboard.
C- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
1b- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
etc
+
innings pitched/1300 * pitching points
=
"points per" leaders

What do you think?

On a different note ...
I changed all but four or five of my players on Sunday ... my largest single day overhaul to date. How great is a fantasy game where you can change your lineup so drastically. Wonderful.

Rotohog Pitchers for tomorrow - 5/7

Myers
Oswalt
Saito
Ray
Benitez
& ????

Roger Clemens is Back

But does it matter? Well sort of. Buy him today and you're going to make money in the Hog. He's going to shoot to $35 or $40 before people realize he won't be pitching for weeks.

Does it matter for the Yankees? It will probably get them a big ticket to ride in the Wild Card race. So yeah - it matters a lot. They are no longer going to finish third in the division.

Will he be the excellent baseball and fantasy pitcher he has been in the past? There's no reason to think not...

Tomorrow's studs ... Hafner, Roberts, and Bonds
And put it on your radar screen ... Ervin Santana has the best day of all starters on Tuesday

Fear and Greed move markets - even in fantasy baseball

What is it that causes a player to move from $10 - $40 in just a few days?

It is, quite simply, demand outstripping supply in a big way. A frenzy.

What causes a frenzy? Long-term investors (buying for performance) and short-term speculators (buying to make a quick profit) both must own a given player at a given time.

Fear and greed dictate short-term moves in the stock market and in individual stocks. The fear component is not particularly relevant here because there is nothing really to lose. There is, therefore, just the greed. "I'm going to make money if I buy the guy right now" and/or "I gotta have this guy for this game."

That's what went on with JJ Hardy, Aaron Rowand, Ian Kinsler, and a few others. This phenomenon is only just beginning. The stars who don't perform and/or get hurt will decline slowly and steadily in value throughout the season. That money (and made money) will go into these mania type situations.

The way to play it - work the off day. A number of quality shortstops rested this past Thursday, opening the door for Hardy to spike. People see the spike and want to get in on it - furthering the issue.

Who's it going to happen to next? That's the $100K question. Look for the beginnings of a spike in closers Henry Owens and Rafael Soriano come Sunday night.

On the injury front, also keep an eye on Harden as he potentially returns this week.

How much is enough?

Is it best to have more money than you could need in this game. I don't know, but I don't think so. Granted, you need a lot of money. Significantly more than the $275 you started with. But being able to buy whoever you want makes you buy based on names, not based on matchups. This game will be won by someone with both trading and fantasy baseball skills. Real fantasy baseball skills - not just knowing that Vlad is the impaler and A-Rod's having a career year. Too much money makes you lazy. It certainly makes you lazy in business, I'll bet it makes you lazy in the hog too.

Today's Value

Good value for today

David DeJesus (5-11 against Verlander, hitting .345 at home, Verlander coming off a poor outing)

Omar Vizquel (a nice bounce back night last night, hitting .375 lifetime against Moyer)

Jason Kubel (.310 at home, 1-3 with a homer v. Wakefield, and you can put this guy in you U spot for a buck)

Another guy pretty much certain to make you money - Brett Myers
He's going to close in Philly, you can start him at SP, and he's got nasty stuff

Caveat: I'm starting all of these guys this evening
Good luck and a good fantasy night

Issues and dollar gains

With Hardy up $14 and Myers up $8 - I feel pretty smart. (other than I didn't follow my own advice and was only holding Hardy) Makes me wonder how much participants who post about and talk up players - hello Apaca - can drive the market. Glad there's no Rotohog SEC.

I was unaffected by the roster problems today, but I agree with the poster who essentially said, "It's a free game for $100K - c'mon." This is also a Beta, and they are working through issues.

Participants should realize '07 football and '08 baseball are going to be big deals, and we have a leg up. Congrats to Rotohog and congrats to us. :)

Brett Myers

Is Brett Myers the Philly closer? Well, no. But it's looking more and more like he will be. With his qualification at starter, this makes him a $40 rotohog player easily. Look for big spikes there soon.

Average to Elite, Elite to Super-Elite

Ian Kinsler made so much money b/c he went from average to super elite. Guys make a ton of money when they move up classes. Rowand went from avg to elite. Who are going to be the next guys to move up classes? I think JJ Hardy and Josh Willingham are both overdue elites. (Hardy might be a super-elite.) And when are people going to realize that not only is Owens the closer in FL, but he is good and on a decent team??

Cramer Caveat: I own Hardy and Owens but not Willingham. Nor does my family own any, and I have no other conflicts. My firm does no investment banking or agent work for any of the above named players. (I watch a lot of CNBC)

Who are the real leaders

I think it is the people who truly get that it is all about points per. Points per game is important, points per inning will make or break you. My feeling is if you do not realize that quality closers get you far more points per inning than starters - even the best starters - you are not actually in this thing. That is why I think someone whose team has already tossed 5-6-700 innings is irrelevant. They could shift to only closers right now and have a shot.

In addition, the real leaders have money. Not necessarily a grand, but $500 plus.

Here is who I think are the real leaders:
Bandos
Weiners
Apaca
Endangered Species
StLCards
Self Esteem
Yaz

I'd love to hear what other people think, who I'm leaving off, and why I'm wrong.