The position players for the second half:
Adam Laroche
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Garrett Atkins
Jeremy Hermida
Nick Markakis
Shane Victorino
Delmon Young
Michael Cuddyer
Joe Mauer
The pitchers for the second half:
Johan Santana
Felix Hernandez
Erik Bedard
Cole Hamels
Matt Garza
Joe Nathan
Frankie Rodriguez
Jake Peavy
Some of these guys are obvious, some not so obvious. I'm not psychic, nor am I a scout for the Yankees. Thank God for both. All I'm saying is these guys are gonna get a lotta play on my rosters. Maybe you want to steal an idea or two. There will be some studs from this group.
Some possible busts could be Braun, Pence, and Willits. Rookies have a tendancy to have a tale of two seasons. At least watch out for an extended slump or two from each. Big name busts - Arod (.280 w/ 40/15/45 is a BIG bust from here on out), Clemens (I'm telling you, and I've said it since Spring Training, this team is not making the playoffs), Jenks (was he on the all-star team, cmon), Haren (won't carry your team), Jimmy Rollins (I love this guy, but again, won't carry your team), Posada (even in the contract year) and Ordonez.
Anyway, we'll know in a few month if any of this should've helped. Good luck to all - enjoy the rest of the season.
PS
My playoff picks
Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins
New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's going to be a fun October for you So-Calers. SI called it.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Imbalances and Opportunity
Jonathan Papelbon is an excellent closer. No doubt. More than that - he is a starter that closes. This makes him so valuable in Rotohog.
But...
Kevin Gregg (also SP; RP) is excellent and always, unlike Pap, closes in save situations. (Manager appointed him closer - don't expect shaky Benetiz to take away his opps.)
Brad Hennessey is also a good pitcher, also qualifies at SP, and should also being seeing the opps in SF.
Why is Pap an $80 pitcher while Gregg and Hennessey go for $5 and $4 respectively? This is an imbalance. Imbalances mean opportunity.
Another...Dice-K will cost you $60 for his next start, Chris Young, who completely owns the Dodgers, and throws at pitcher friendly Petco next week, can be had for $24 2-DAY. There's an imbalance.
It's the marginal points that mean everything in fantasy baseball - any format of fantasy baseball. But the marginal points don't come from just high-priced players. The marginal points come from exploiting matchups and correcting imbalances.
Ps. One more for the road...Clemens (whom I don't own) will throw his second start going off at over $50. An easy chance to double your money.
But...
Kevin Gregg (also SP; RP) is excellent and always, unlike Pap, closes in save situations. (Manager appointed him closer - don't expect shaky Benetiz to take away his opps.)
Brad Hennessey is also a good pitcher, also qualifies at SP, and should also being seeing the opps in SF.
Why is Pap an $80 pitcher while Gregg and Hennessey go for $5 and $4 respectively? This is an imbalance. Imbalances mean opportunity.
Another...Dice-K will cost you $60 for his next start, Chris Young, who completely owns the Dodgers, and throws at pitcher friendly Petco next week, can be had for $24 2-DAY. There's an imbalance.
It's the marginal points that mean everything in fantasy baseball - any format of fantasy baseball. But the marginal points don't come from just high-priced players. The marginal points come from exploiting matchups and correcting imbalances.
Ps. One more for the road...Clemens (whom I don't own) will throw his second start going off at over $50. An easy chance to double your money.
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Other roto leagues
I realized something about Rotohog yesterday...
While I have been all about the main prizes ($100K), the best part of RH is the ability to have a completely fair league. It will eliminate all the usual crap I deal with from fantasy baseball.
I've been in a league for nearly a decade with some friends from college. There have been a number of rule changes because fairness constantly seems to be a problem. Right now, it's a 12 team keeper league (10 keepers, no restrictions). I don't really like trading with anyone ... everyone is trying to rip everyone else off. Next year, I think I'm going to suggest that we put the league into RH so we don't have to deal with it.
RH needs to add some functionality whereby we can pay our $250/team (that league is fairly steep, I know) into the system, and get paid (according to our own leagues payout schedule) easily. 5% off the top for running the baseball and running the money, would be fair.
Will RH eliminate sportsline, espn, and the rest when this functionality gets added. Maybe one day...but not soon. There is still very much a place for live drafts and human to human trading, not to mention private message boards with the kind of commentary not fit for public consumption. But for leagues that are just one big headache after the draft...move em to the hog.
While I have been all about the main prizes ($100K), the best part of RH is the ability to have a completely fair league. It will eliminate all the usual crap I deal with from fantasy baseball.
I've been in a league for nearly a decade with some friends from college. There have been a number of rule changes because fairness constantly seems to be a problem. Right now, it's a 12 team keeper league (10 keepers, no restrictions). I don't really like trading with anyone ... everyone is trying to rip everyone else off. Next year, I think I'm going to suggest that we put the league into RH so we don't have to deal with it.
RH needs to add some functionality whereby we can pay our $250/team (that league is fairly steep, I know) into the system, and get paid (according to our own leagues payout schedule) easily. 5% off the top for running the baseball and running the money, would be fair.
Will RH eliminate sportsline, espn, and the rest when this functionality gets added. Maybe one day...but not soon. There is still very much a place for live drafts and human to human trading, not to mention private message boards with the kind of commentary not fit for public consumption. But for leagues that are just one big headache after the draft...move em to the hog.
Sunday, May 20, 2007
A frustrating game
Ohh, baseball is one frustrating game. Hit the ball hard 5 times and go 0-5. Dink three hits for a couple rbi's. A close call goes the wrong way which then opens the flood gates on you.
Fantasy baseball is similar. You knew the guy was going to have a good start...but you didn't start him. You knew your guy was about to slump...but you kept playing him anyway.
Don't get too upset with what you didn't do right. There's no time for that. Remember, "the triumphs in life are partly triumphs because you know that everything isn't going to be a triumph." Warren Buffett said that and it applies to just about every area of life. (even fantasy baseball)
Fantasy baseball is similar. You knew the guy was going to have a good start...but you didn't start him. You knew your guy was about to slump...but you kept playing him anyway.
Don't get too upset with what you didn't do right. There's no time for that. Remember, "the triumphs in life are partly triumphs because you know that everything isn't going to be a triumph." Warren Buffett said that and it applies to just about every area of life. (even fantasy baseball)
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Why we like to gamble
Back in the day, and I mean waaayyy back in the day, the hunter who could guess where the herd was going to be could feed his family or his tribe. That made him a hero. When money got involved, it made him rich. That is why we like to gamble - it's hard wired into our DNA. (I'm no scientist and I shoot from the hip, so I don't actually know if this is hard-wired or what hard wired even means. :))
I am completely involved in the stock market and the above is the reason. But if there is one thing better than trying to guess what is going to happen in society, economics, company decisions, and with the influential few that dictate the stock market, it is trying to predict what will happen in baseball.
The stock market has rules and truisms and metrics. Baseball has 90 feet to first and just as many rules, truisms and metrics. Thanks to Rotohog for creating an egaging platform for my predictions.
I will make a prediction or calculate odds on just about anything. Doing it on the game I love is just more enjoyable. After all, a Torii Hunter diving grab and Joe Mauer 5-5 gets the juices flowing even more than Vasco Data Security blowing the number out on their latest quarterlies.
I am completely involved in the stock market and the above is the reason. But if there is one thing better than trying to guess what is going to happen in society, economics, company decisions, and with the influential few that dictate the stock market, it is trying to predict what will happen in baseball.
The stock market has rules and truisms and metrics. Baseball has 90 feet to first and just as many rules, truisms and metrics. Thanks to Rotohog for creating an egaging platform for my predictions.
I will make a prediction or calculate odds on just about anything. Doing it on the game I love is just more enjoyable. After all, a Torii Hunter diving grab and Joe Mauer 5-5 gets the juices flowing even more than Vasco Data Security blowing the number out on their latest quarterlies.
RSS Feeds?
It appears you can actually go on vacation (well - a friends wedding with a few extra days in my hometown of Baltimore) and not dramatically lose position. You mean I don't actually have to make have a dozen moves everyday?? Apparently not.
One thing I would love to see - a few rss feeds. Leaderboard? Message Board? News?
One thing I would love to see - a few rss feeds. Leaderboard? Message Board? News?
Monday, May 07, 2007
What I would love to see...
Most people know that "points per" is the measure of who is truly winning rotohog.
"Points per" inning and "points per" game.
Why? Because everyone will have 162 games at each position and everyone will have 1300 innings pitched. The difference is how you get there.
So I would love to see a "points per" leaderboard.
C- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
1b- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
etc
+
innings pitched/1300 * pitching points
=
"points per" leaders
What do you think?
On a different note ...
I changed all but four or five of my players on Sunday ... my largest single day overhaul to date. How great is a fantasy game where you can change your lineup so drastically. Wonderful.
"Points per" inning and "points per" game.
Why? Because everyone will have 162 games at each position and everyone will have 1300 innings pitched. The difference is how you get there.
So I would love to see a "points per" leaderboard.
C- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
1b- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
etc
+
innings pitched/1300 * pitching points
=
"points per" leaders
What do you think?
On a different note ...
I changed all but four or five of my players on Sunday ... my largest single day overhaul to date. How great is a fantasy game where you can change your lineup so drastically. Wonderful.
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Roger Clemens is Back
But does it matter? Well sort of. Buy him today and you're going to make money in the Hog. He's going to shoot to $35 or $40 before people realize he won't be pitching for weeks.
Does it matter for the Yankees? It will probably get them a big ticket to ride in the Wild Card race. So yeah - it matters a lot. They are no longer going to finish third in the division.
Will he be the excellent baseball and fantasy pitcher he has been in the past? There's no reason to think not...
Tomorrow's studs ... Hafner, Roberts, and Bonds
And put it on your radar screen ... Ervin Santana has the best day of all starters on Tuesday
Does it matter for the Yankees? It will probably get them a big ticket to ride in the Wild Card race. So yeah - it matters a lot. They are no longer going to finish third in the division.
Will he be the excellent baseball and fantasy pitcher he has been in the past? There's no reason to think not...
Tomorrow's studs ... Hafner, Roberts, and Bonds
And put it on your radar screen ... Ervin Santana has the best day of all starters on Tuesday
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